Eye in the sky
The European Space Agency is working with GOTS to map and monitor organic cotton cultivation using satellites, as a new program is developed that is sophisticated enough to classify field usage to a startling degree.
Being able to spot the difference between organic and non-organic fields of cotton would be a challenge for most people outside the agricultural sector – particularly from a distance of 700km. But this is exactly where the European Space Agency (ESA) and German software company Marple started when they embarked on a project to test if they could use satellite data to identify different field usage from space. They harnessed machine learning and artificial intelligence to highlight cotton fields versus wheat or maize or other uses, with satisfyingly accurate results. “They discovered the software was able to differentiate cotton versus other crops to a degree of 98% accuracy, as well as whether or not it was likely to be organic or non-organic,” Jeffrey Thimm, project manager at Global Organic Textile Standard (GOTS), tells WSA.
GOTS – a standard for the post-harvest processing of textiles made with certified organic fibres – realised the project had considerable potential to support the organic cotton sector and chose to invest. From the initial pilot mapping fields in Uzbekistan, it has now been widened to look at India, the world’s most important organic cotton producer, training artificial intelligence to use satellite data and “ground truth” data to classify fields automatically. “The satellite images are not just photographs, they use infrared and far-infrared sensors that are able to pick up on differentials that you and I can't see,” explains Mr Thimm.
The software operates using various metrics, including the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which measures vegetation health, and the Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), which evaluates the water content in vegetation and soil. The team discovered nuances in organic cotton fields, such as how long the plants took to grow, what they looked like and the water content.
The data will be used for three main aims: to help estimate volumes, to combat fraud and to identify farms that could easily be converted to organic practices. It is important to have a reliable estimation of volumes, partly so buyers know how much they can expect to purchase in the coming seasons, but also for fraud prevention. “If we don't really know how much organic cotton is actually available then it really opens up the doors for fraudulent behaviour, which of course then hurts everybody,” says Mr Thimm.
Gaps in volume
GOTS supplies information to the US-based Textile Exchange to help it with its publications, including the widely used Organic Cotton Market Report. Last November, TE published Strengthening Integrity in Organic Cotton, in which it noted the gap in the volume of organic cotton reported to be used by brands and retailers and the estimates of the volume of organic cotton actually produced. “Most organic cotton farmers don’t have access to good-quality non-GMO cotton seeds, don’t have secure buyer relations, and often don’t receive a price differential that offsets their efforts,” it stated. “Without fair remuneration, there’s greater pressure on farmers to increase their yields and reduce their costs, which increases the risk of fraud. This may come through the use of GMO seeds, or the use of pesticides to prevent disease or losses from insect pressure as well.” It concluded that organisations must proactively map suppliers and invest in new tools to boost the integrity of supply.
Organic cotton supply is still very low – around 1.4% of the global cotton volume. In the most recent Organic Cotton Market Review, published last October, TE conceded its data confidence from India was low. The body was only able to obtain data from India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, but this combines organic and in-conversion production into a single figure. In the past, TE was able to use data provided by producers and certification bodies to determine the breakdown between organic and in-conversion but this year had to apply modelling and assumptions to arrive at an estimation.
Tight supplies push prices up – and also increase the temptation for fraud. In 2020, GOTS found evidence of fake Raw Cotton Transaction Certificates (TC) in India, which had been created by fraudsters using government templates with fake QR codes, leading to a cloned website to pretend the TCs were authentic. The announcement hit the sector, with questions over authenticity, transparency and governance, pushing prices even higher.
While GOTS had measures in place to combat fraud, it has since doubled down on efforts to police the supply chain. From December 2022, it has put in place “a double safety net” of traceability of all TC data back to the original farm source, as well as cotton gins certified to the Organic Cotton Standard. “We have been looking at many different tools to reduce the possibility of fraud, so in India we've introduced a farm-to-gin registry so that we have better clarity on exactly where gins are getting their cotton from, and we've made it harder for traders just to move cotton around on paper. When we learned about this AI opportunity with satellites, we thought this is one of a basket of tools that could really help.”
Watchful presence
The project is funded by both the ESA and GOTS. Through its Business Applications Space Solutions, ESA aims to show how satellite applications and space technology can be beneficial to business. It has previously worked with Schoeller Textil and the Hohenstein Institute to evaluate performance textiles in space, and with Sympatex on a project to design functional fabrics for astronauts.
As a non-profit, GOTS believes investing in the project could “reduce the running costs of sustainability”, and could also help to identify more farms whose land is suitable for conversion to organic, boosting the network. “This is a way for us to help find those farmers that are already on board in terms of methodology or almost growing the cotton with organic principles and just need a little bit of extra support to get certified, whether it's organisational or financial, being part of the group, connecting to the supply chain,” adds Mr Thimm. More brands are now accepting ‘in-conversion’ cotton, as it typically takes three years to become certified organic, which is also helping to address the demand gap while helping growers financially during the transition.
Potential deterrent
Farmers and supply chain partners have mainly reacted with “intrigue” to the project. “There have been some concerns about data privacy – how the field data is going to be used – but we're in compliance with the EU’s GDPR regulations,” says Mr Thimm. “The only negative response has been from the fraudsters. People behave differently when they know there's a camera looking and an eye in the sky should reduce the amount of attempted fraud. We already catch a lot of fraud going on and prevent that cotton from getting into the market, but we prefer less of that to happen to begin with, and so we are hoping that as technology is deployed the risks will be too high for that type of behaviour to continue.”
The team expects results from India by the end of this year. Following that, the scope could be global. “Once we conclude in India, we could look at another region, perhaps East Africa. We might also look at other fibre crops,” adds Mr Thimm. “This is just the initial stages of this technology and it is quite an exciting time for us.”
By imaging Earth’s land in remarkable detail, satellites benefit society through various disciplines including cartography, monitoring land use, urban development and water management.
Credit: European Space Agency
