The changing face of global retail
02/11/2012
The report, Retail 2022, predicts of how the retail and economic landscape will change over the next 10 years, and says China, India, Brazil and Russia will be the dominant markets in a decade, with Africa following as the biggest growth story.
By 2022, China is expected to account for around a quarter of the global retail sales generated by the 60 largest markets, twice as much as the US.
It says: "From a retail perspective, the opportunity is already well established in emerging markets. The “big four” global retailers - WalMart, Carrefour, Metro AG and Tesco - have a burgeoning presence in China. Other key markets, like Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia and India, remain the focus of much attention. The easing of regulation over foreign investment will be a key factor in how these markets behave during the coming decade."
It predicts that the Indian market could be as big as that of Western Europe by 2022, and that African countries have the potential to be strong drivers of growth for retail.
It goes on to say that online and mobile shopping will play a big role in how people shop, and retailers and ‘bricks-and-mortar’ stores will have to respond to keep up. “Forrester, a US-based market research company, is anticipating that between 2011 and 2017 the value of mobile retail transactions will rise elevenfold across Europe. Given the continuing emergence of app-based shopping, this estimate looks conservative and 2022 will see mobile commerce as very much a mainstream means of shopping,” it says.
In the UK, it expects continued polarisation of shopping habits – with consumers favouring discount stores for low-cost goods but also spending on higher value or luxury goods at the top end.
It also predicts many Western brands will become Chinese or Indian owned.
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