Cautious optimism informs cotton forecasts for 2023-2024
Cotton sector information resource Cotlook has put its initial estimates of cotton production for the 2023-2024 season at just below 25.4 million tonnes, an increase of 2% on 2022-2023. It described this figure as “a first tentative forecast”.
It explained that cotton was fetching historically high price levels and that this would normally encourage farmers to grow the fibre. However, a sharp rise in production costs, including higher prices for pesticides and fertiliser, as well as the relatively good returns obtainable from competing crops, have resulted in an expectation that the planted area will remain steady in 2023-2024.
As for consumption, its most recent forecast indicates a return to growth. Any attempt to predict global raw cotton consumption in the coming 18-month period is “fraught with difficulty” Liverpool-based Cotlook said. But it added that “a cautious optimism” had led it to suggest that more than 24.5 million tonnes of cotton will be consumed, an increase of more than 5% compared to the 2022-2023 season.
