China will be the winner after TPP demise

22/11/2016
Early comments from the new president-elect of the US, Donald Trump, suggest there will be no ratification of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). He said on November 22 that he would aim for the US to set up bilateral trade agreements with chosen partners instead.

According to an economics expert from the University of Oxford, the big winner after the demise of TPP will be China, which was excluded from the 12-country TPP deal.

After Mr Trump’s comments, Dr Linda Yuek of St Edmund Hall, Oxford, told the BBC: “China will be the winner here because it’s China that will be able to take the lead in trade agreements in Asia-Pacific and, thanks to new trade-based relations, China will become more influential.”

She said that, away from TPP, China has already been working to build up its influence through ideas such as the Belt and Road Initiative (which seeks to build stronger links with trading partners along the Silk Road) and its successful proposal to set up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which supports infrastructure projects in 57 countries.

“If the US turns inwards,” Dr Yueh warned, “it will open up space for China to exert more influence.”