Declining consumer confidence slowing cotton consumption and trade
05/11/2019
Slowing mill use and cotton imports in China (resulting primarily from the economic burden of the US-Sino trade war) are causing a decline in cotton consumption and trade in 2019/20, according to ICAC. The organisation reported estimated projections for global production in the coming year to be 26.7 million tonnes, consumption at 26.2 million tonnes and overall trade at 8.8 million tonnes.
Despite India’s low yields of 440 kg/ha (significantly below the global average of 780 kg/ha), the country is expected to lead the world in overall cotton production at 6 million tonnes. China is projected to be the world’s top consumer at 8.05 million tonnes, even though that represents a 2% decrease from 2018/19.
Mexico and Pakistan are expected to increase their imports by 48% (to 141,000 tonnes) and 8% (to 711,000 tonnes), respectively. The newsletter also predicted that, with production expected to grow by 1 million tonnes and consumption projected to remain flat, prices will be under heavy pressure throughout the year.