Renewable Carbon Initiative analyses chemicals and plastics feedstocks
Germany’s Nova-Institute, on behalf of the Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI), has published an assessment of net-zero visions for the chemical and plastics industries.
The report, 'Evaluation of Recent Reports on the Future of a Net-Zero Chemical Industry in 2050', assesses studies with net-zero 2050 visions and scenarios for chemicals or plastics, with a focus on overall growth and renewable carbon shares.
The majority of global scenarios anticipate continued growth in the production of the chemical industry. The average annual growth rate of the global feedstock demand for the chemical or plastics industry is projected at 2.9% (range 2%-4%). This indicates a slight deceleration compared to 3-4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) observed in recent decades.
Overall, this translates into an approximate 2.4-fold increase in global feedstock demand from the chemical industry by 2050 compared with 2020 levels. Most of the growth is expected to take place outside of Europe as feedstock volumes in Europe are predicted to remain stable.
Despite variations in modelling approaches, assumptions and scope, the results of the studies agree on a common vision: in a net-zero future, the chemical industry’s feedstock shifts dramatically away from fossil feedstocks. Biomass, CCU and recycling are consistently identified as the pillars of this transition and beyond, with recycled feedstock projected as the main source of carbon for plastics production.
While uncertainties remain about the volume of chemical recycling due to current low technology readiness levels, the results show that maximising carbon recovery and circularity of carbon can only be achieved by including and scaling chemical recycling, said Nova.
The Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI) is a network of more than 60 companies dedicated to supporting and accelerating the transition from fossil carbon to renewable carbon (bio-based, CO2-based and recycled) for organic chemicals and materials. Its work focuses on scientific background reports, position papers, advocacy and networking.
