Global consumption is expected to grow 3.5% to almost 122 million bales, higher than the pre-pandemic 2018/19 level. 

However, lingering disruptions (reduced consumer demand and logistical issues) are expected to keep global use below the 2017/18 record level. 

All top ten consuming countries are expected to witness growth in consumption, particularly India.

Stocks in China, the US and India are expected to decline, with China’s share of global stocks declining to the second lowest level in 11 years. 

Australia’s exports are forecast to more than double on dramatically higher production, with improved prospects relative to the extreme drought in 2020/21. India’s exports will rise as prices allow for the reduction of government controlled stocks, according to USDA.

 

Image credit: USDA