ICAC forecasts 20% rise in Vietnamese cotton consumption as Chinese invest in mills
The 15% decline in cotton production, estimated at 22.2 million tons, in 2015/16 will result in an 8% decrease in global stocks – the first reduction since 2009/10, according to the International Cotton Advisory Council.
World cotton area contracted by 8% to 31.2 million hectares as low cotton prices in 2014/15 and higher prices for competing crops discouraged farmers from planting cotton while adverse weather in many countries led to the world average yield decreasing by 7%.
Cotton consumption in China, the world’s largest consumer, has declined continuously since 2009/10 when it reached just over 10 million tons. In 2015/16, cotton consumption in China is forecast at 7.1 million tons, down 5% from last season. India’s cotton consumption is expected to decline by 2% to 5.3 million tons. Cotton consumption in Pakistan is projected to decrease by 12% to 2.2 million tons due to weakened demand from China.
In contrast, consumption in Vietnam may increase by 22% to 1.1 million tons in 2015/16 as China continues to invest in spinning mills there. Bangladesh’s mill use is forecast to expand by 13% to 1.1 million tons.
In 2016/17, world cotton consumption is projected to remain stable as modest growth in the top consumers outside of China offsets the decline in China’s cotton consumption.
Aside from Australia where production is forecast to increase by 6% to 546,000 tons, cotton production in the top 10 cotton producing countries all declined in 2015/16.
